Trends in the Development of Topical Microbicides:A Delphi Survey
To explore future technology development trends of topical microbicides. Method: The whole research design starts with patent analysis, then proceeds with Dephi and ends with technology environment monitoring. In this Delphi survey stage, the results of previous patent analysis and patent literature, served as starting point or anchor for experts to consider. The participated experts are required to read the patent analysis results and patent literature first before responding to the Delphi questionnaire. Results; Two principal findings, one negative and one positive, were indicated from Delphi survey. The pessimistic scenario indicates that we still do not have any basis for predicting the availability of a microbicide product with commercial potential and that the current progress in microbicide development is insufficient for forecasting such a product. The optimistic scenario indicates that it may take between 5 and 10 years to produce a promising topical microbicidal a-gent with sufficient effic acy to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS. Conclusions; Currently, we are not in a position to judge with certainty which scenario will happen and when such scenario will occur. We will continuously monitor and track patents, R&D funds, leading inventors and clinical trials result of new microbicide candidates for discerning more early signals or evidences, which can help us in judging them timely and correctly.
topical microbicides technology foresight Delphi patent analysis
ZHANG Dongmei ZENG Zhonglu
Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, P. R. China Macao Polytechnic Institute, P. R. China
国际会议
Shanghai Conference on Management of Technology(2010上海技术管理研讨会 MOT2010)(第七届中国技术管理学术年会)
上海
英文
251-256
2010-06-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）