A CONTINUOUS-TIME NPV MODEL FOR DETERMINING THE CONCESSION PERIOD OF BOT PROJECTS

摘要：

The concession period is one of the most important issues to be addressed in the build operate-transfer (BOT) contractual arrangement in infrastructure projects. Determination of a concession period is closely related to the total investment and future operating costs. In determining the concession period, the future demand of traffic volumes in highways, bridges or tunnels, etc. plays a critical role because of inherent uncertainty. This paper uses a restricted Geometric Brownian motion with a drift to simulate the traffic volume and its uncertainty, and proposes using a continuous-time net present value (NPV) model to determine the concession period of BOT projects. Application of the model shows that the uncertainty on the traffic volume will require longer concession period through lowering the expected traffic volume and through lifting the discount rate.

关键词： BOT Concession Period Continuous-time NPV Model

作者: Jiang-wei Xu Sungwoo Moon

作者单位: Construction Engrg. Bldg. Room 1213, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management(首届可持续建设与风险管理国际会议)

会议地点: 重庆

会议语种:英文

页码: 235-239

在线出版日期: 2010-06-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）