Subway System Safety Risk Analysis Based on Bayesian Network

摘要：

Subway system is associated with a high level of uncertainty because it usually operates in a dynamic environment in which technical and human and organizational malfunctions may cause possible accidents. This paper proposes a Bayesian network approach to model causal relationships among risk factors. This model explicitly represents cause and effect assumptions between variables. The method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinions when quantitative data are lacking. This makes the risk and safety analysis of subway systems more functional and easier. A case study of the fire risk due to human errors during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

关键词： risk analysis safety assessment Bayesian networks subway systems

作者: Ying Lu Qiming Li Jimmie Hinze

作者单位: PhD Candidate, Department of Construction Management and Real Estate,Southeast University, China Professor, Department of Construction Management and Real Estate, Southeast University, China Professor, M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction, University of Florida, U.S

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management(首届可持续建设与风险管理国际会议)

会议地点: 重庆

会议语种:英文

页码: 662-666

在线出版日期: 2010-06-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）