A Risk-sensitivity Analysis on NPV Model of Investment Projects

摘要：

NPV (Net Present Value) is a preferred method of feasibility study to describe uncertainty of risk-sensitivity. Sensitivity analysis is an important and indispensable process. In addition to single factor sensitivity analysis, Risk-sensitivity analysis takes into account of probability distribution, control and relativity of risk factors, making the traditional sensitivity analysis more uniform and more objective. This paper briefly describes NPV, sensitivity analysis method, and discusses concepts about risk factors distribution factor, and controllability factors. It also demonstrates operability of an integrated sensitivity analysis through the establishment of NPV model and case analysis.

关键词： investment projects NPV sensitivity Monte Carlo simulation

作者: Qin Xiansheng Ma Xuyao Bai Hongwei

作者单位: Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xian, china Shaanxi Fast Gear Co., Ltd, Xian, china

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management(首届可持续建设与风险管理国际会议)

会议地点: 重庆

会议语种:英文

页码: 667-671

在线出版日期: 2010-06-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）