Resident Population Prediction Based On Cohort-Component Method

摘要：

Resident population prediction is very important to sustainable urban construction. Population forecasts by age group and sex can be derived through cohort-component method. This method needs at least two consecutive censuses data, but we can only obtain one in Beilun. Beilun is new district in Ningbo Zhejiang, whose floating population increased highly in the past 15 year. However, because of the lack of data, we could not apply the cohort-component method directly. In this paper, we will tackle the problems such as fertility rate to better molding the method. It is proved that this method perform well in population prediction.

关键词： cohort-component method population prediction sustainable urban construction fertility mortality migration

作者: Lv Biyu Zhang Jiantong He Hong

作者单位: School of Economics and Management,Tongji University, Shanghai, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management(首届可持续建设与风险管理国际会议)

会议地点: 重庆

会议语种:英文

页码: 839-843

在线出版日期: 2010-06-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）