Impacts of R/T Elements on Contract Economics under Oil Price Uncertainty
Royalty-Tax system contract (R/T) is one of the most common types of cooperation modes in international petroleum contracts. The elements that affect R/T economics mainly include royalty and income tax. Assuming that oil prices follows the mean-reversion process, this paper takes the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) as two economic indexes and models the PSC through setting 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element. Then, after getting 100 oil price change routes, we mark off different intervals and calculate the cumulative probability according to the value of NPV and IRR, followed by comparative analysis of how the changes of different elements influence the contract economics. The study concludes that the impact of income tax is more significant than the royalty, and the FOCs ability to withstand oil price volatility will reduce drastically once the tax rate exceeds 30％.
Royalty-Tax System Mean-Reversion Oil Contract Oil Price International Petroleum Cooperation
Wang Zhen Liu Mingming Zhao Lin
China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China
国际会议
The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management(首届可持续建设与风险管理国际会议)
重庆
英文
1444-1448
2010-06-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）