The Risk Identification, Estimation and Evaluation of Agricultural Natural Disaster
It is crucial and urgent to pay more attention to risk management of agriculture natural disasters, emphasize on the construction and research of the natural disaster defensive systems. Therefore, in this paper, as the base of the risk management of agriculture natural, the risk identification, estimation and evaluation should be focused and wholly regarded in the first place. The basic theories and methods of risk analysis, including ways to avoid the risk, weight the risk, comprehensive analysis, and insurance transfer, are introduced. Then, based on the probability density function, a method to measure the risk level is put forward. First, the grain yield is decomposed. Second, the risk probability is estimated, by adopting the integral method of the analytic probability density curve.
natural disaster risk identification risk estimation risk evaluation
Qingyuan Zhou Jianjian Luo Deliang Liang Jing Lou
School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu Teachers University of Technology, China 213001 School of Economics and Management, Changzhou College of Information Technology, China 213001 School of Computer Engineering, Jiangsu Teachers University of Technology, China 213001
国际会议
武汉
英文
336-339
2010-06-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）