Post-amendment-based Gray Model on the General Budget Revenue of Regional Finance

摘要：

Aimed at the poblems like traditional regression model cant guarantee a long time effect in national industrial upgrading period, frequent policy changes etc, combining gray model and Double Exponential Smoothing model, this paper proposes a Postamendment-based Gray Model to forecast the General Budget Revenue of Regional Finance. The Gray Model doesnt need to consider the relationship among internal variables but also does better in reflecting the actual situation further more, and imports double exponential smoothing model amends the shortcoming of gray model in short-term forecast. Finally, EViews6 is used to analyze and forecast the general budget revenue of Zhejiang Province form 2005 to 2007 to verify models validation.

关键词： Regional Finance Gray Model Double Exponential Smoothing General Budget Revenue

作者: Xufeng Ding Yongqin Jin Dongsheng Liu Jianmin Lin

作者单位: College of Computer Science & Information Engineering, ZhejiangGongshang University, HangZhou 310018 Department of Finance Information Center, Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310000 China College of Computer Science & Information Engineering, ZhejiangGongshang University, HangZhou 310018 College of Computer Science & Information Engineering, ZhejiangGongshang University, HangZhou 310018

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Information Technology and Industrial Engineering(2010年信息技术与工业工程国际学术会议 ITIE 2010)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 1025-1029

在线出版日期: 2010-06-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）