Risk Analysis of Decision-making on Public Projects Based on Gray Evaluation
Public projects have significant effects on the society and economy with the characteristics of publicity and political sensitivity. So it is important to conduct risk analysis and risk prediction in the decision-making stage. The decision-making risks of public projects are generally grey, fuzzy and difficult to be quantified, and their functioning mechanisms are complicated. Accordingly, a thought and related method of decision-making risk management of public projects are presented based on gray theory in this paper. The main steps of the decision-making risk management, including risk identification, risk estimate and risk evaluation, were discussed in detail. A multi-layer gray evaluation model of decision-making risks was set up finally. A case study of decision making of a big bridge is demonstrated, and the results indicate that adaptive to the characteristics of decisionmaking risks of public projects, this risk analysis method can produce more scientific and reasonable results of risk evaluation.
Public projects Decision-making Risk analysis Gray evaluation
XieLL Huang WW
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology Guangzhou, China
国际会议
2010 International Symposium on Construction Economy and Management(2010年建筑经济与管理国际学术研讨会 SECEM2010)
深圳
英文
122-126
2010-05-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）