Life Prediction of Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing using Time Series Method and Grey Theory

摘要：

This paper proposes a new life prediction method using time series and grey theory to predict product life based on Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing (CSADT) data. CSADT degradation data is modeled using time series method and predicted using grey theory. A four electric stress levels CSADT of miniature bulb is conducted to verify the proposed method. A comparison among life prediction by the proposed method, traditional methods, and real life of miniature bulb is processed. The result shows that life prediction by the proposed method is more accurate than traditional methods.

关键词： Constant-stress accelerated degradation testing Life prediction Time series Grey Theory

作者: Li Wang Xiaoyang Li Tongmin Jiang Tingting Huang

作者单位: School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2nd International Conference on Advances in Product Development and Reliability(第二届产品开发与可靠性进展国际会议 PDR2010)

会议地点: 沈阳

会议语种:英文

页码: 616-620

在线出版日期: 2010-07-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）