Research on Integral Forecasting of Equipment Materiel Consuming Discipline

摘要：

The progress of technology makes the structure of weapons and equipments more complex. The breed,quantity and amount of equipment materiel get greater than the former general battles.So,it will be sticking point of establishing reasonable inventory standards and stocking strategy that forecasting materiel consuming discipline by rule and line.And it will also be significant to debase the whole inventory,and to increase the support ratio of materiel and to increase the utilizing efficiency of maintenance costs.After analyzing the historical consuming data of equipment materiel,this paper forecasts materiel consuming discipline by unitary method.This method firstly forecasts the nonzero wastage,and then forecasts the wastage of limited time.It forecasts the distributing rule by combine the explaining variable and the self-correlation.And it will be up to the fact of equipment consuming.The precision of forecasting will be more accurate than the Markov Bootstrap method that doesnt consider the influence of explaining variables.

关键词： Equipment materiel consuming discipline integral forecasting

作者: WANG Tiening XU Shengliang KE Rongbo JIN Liya

作者单位: Academy of Armored Forces Engineering,Depart of Technical Support Engineering,Beijing,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 3rd International Conference on Logistics and Supply Chain Management 2010(第三届物流与供应链管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 35-42

在线出版日期: 2010-07-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）