The preliminary study of the impact of initial conditions on Shortterm Climate Prediction
Focusing on the impact of initial conditions on the Short-term Climate Prediction, a grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model with 9 vertical levels and a resolution of 20 in latitudinal and 2.50 in longitudinal direction, developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L2x2.5-AGCM) is used to perform the numerical experiment of ensemble hindcasting for seventeen years(1988-2004).Five sets of experiments are done in this paper from five initial conditions. After comparing, the results show that the impact of initial conditions on predictability in middle- and high-latitude regions is more significant than that in the tropics. In addition, in view of temporal anomaly correlations, the results of latter four sets of experiments are better than that of the basic experiment in most of China. That is to say, initial conditions play a very important role on Short-term Climate Prediction, especially in China. A reasonable and coordinated initial conditions for Short-term Climate Prediction in China is necessarily and urgently.
initial conditions Short-term Climate Prediction ensemble hindcasting
Yuanhong Guan Weisong Lu Guangqing Zhou
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, PRC Institute of atmospheric and physics, CAS, Beijing, PRC
国际会议
南京
英文
68-72
2010-05-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）