Regional Simulation of Rice Yield Change in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River under SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios
The impacts of climate change on the rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was assessed in this paper. Data from the PRECIS regional climate model for baseline (19611990) and future (2021-2050) periods under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenario conditions are used as input for the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Two experimental schemes were used to evaluate the response of rice crop to raised temperature and CO2 concentration. The results showed that the dee growth period would be shortened and yield decline significantly with raised temperature if CO2 fertilization effect was not considered. The rice growth period would be shortened by 4.5 d and yield reduced by 15.2％ under A2 scenario in 20212050 relative to baseline while it would be 3.7 d and 15％ under B2 scenario. Spatially, the area of rice yield reduced by more than 20％ covered the most regions of Anhui, Hubei and Hunan provinces. The significance of the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect to rice crop was found under future elevated CO2 concentrations (2021-2050) for both A2 and B2 scenarios. But it was still not enough to offset the negative effects of warming. With CO2 fertilization effect, the rice yield declined by 5.1％ and 5.8％ under A2 and B2 scenario, respectively. The area with high yield reduction decreased spatially and the average magnitude of yield reduction lessened remarkably. Meanwhile, the area with increased rice production was detected in some parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces, although the magnitude of yield increase was less than 10％. At last, the overall results agreed reasonably well with other similar studies, especially in which CERES-RICE model was employed, that further confirmed the rice crop model ORYZA2000 could well be applied in assessing the impact of climate change on rice crop.
rice ORYZA2000 PRECIS SRES
Shenbin Yang Shuanghe Shen Yanxia Zhao
College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
国际会议
南京
英文
110-115
2010-05-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）