Application of Optimal Weighted Combination Model in Forecasting GDP of Linyi City
In order to discuss the optimum weighted combination forecasting model in regional GDP forecasting, based on the date of GDP from 1995 to 2008 in Linyi City, Shandong Province. The quadratic curve model, the exponential curve model and the optimal weighted combination model were used to simulate and forecast GDP of Linyi city. It was calculated that the F test values were 930.14, 896.87, 1394.10 respectively. The results indicated that the optimum weighted combination model was more precise than one single forecasting method, whose mean relative error is less than 3.2％ in recent 10 years. The model is used in forecast analysis of the growth tendency of GDP, providing scientific basis for economic development in Linyi city.
optimal weighted combination method GDP Linyi
LI Wenjun
School of Business, Linyi Normal University, Linyi 276005, China
国际会议
南京
英文
600-603
2010-05-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）