Retailers Decision and Bullwhip Effect Based on Different Forecast Methods

摘要：

This paper considers the impact of a retailers decision on the bullwhip effect with different forecast methods in a simple two-stage supply chain system consisting of a single retailer and a single supplier. The customer faces the uncertainty of demand at the retailer which is assumed to be a linear demand function with random shocks of autoregressive processes. It presents a combined decision (pricing and inventory decision) model for the retailer and obtains the optimal price and order-up-to level of each period. Then the bullwhip effect measures are obtained with the moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES) methods, respectively. Further, with the help of a numerical example, it is shown that different forecasting methods lead to bullwhip effect measures with distinct properties in relation to underlying parameters of the demand function. Thus, retailers must choose a forecasting method in connection with demands fine structure to reduce the bullwhip effect.

关键词： Supply Chain Management Combined Decision Bullwhip Effect Forecasting Methods Linear Demand Function Autoregressive processes

作者: Wang Weijun Tang Xiaowo

作者单位: School of Management, Electronic Science and technology University of China, Chengdu 610056, China C School of Management, Electronic Science and technology University of China, Chengdu 610056,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Forum of Knowledge as a Service(2010知识服务国际论坛)

会议地点: 厦门

会议语种:英文

页码: 82-87

在线出版日期: 2010-04-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）