Brazilian Power System Probabilistic Reliability Assessment -Planning
This paper presents the results related with a probabilistic reliability assessment of the Brazilian bulk power system, from the adequacy point of view. The evaluation was carried out by the Government Energy Planning Company (EPE) which is responsible for the long and medium term energetic and electrical planning studies. EPE carries out transmission planning studies based on the global cost minimization in compliance with the n-1 criteria that subsidize a ten-year plan published every year. Recently EPE has decided to evaluate the network reliability in order to achieve complementary results to the determinist studies. In this first EPE reliability study, the state selection was done by enumerating first order outages of transmission lines, Network and Border Transformers. EPE has adopted the severity index as a reference for diagnosing predictive probabilistic risks in the Main Transmission Grid. Severity is a normalized index, given by the ratio of expected non-supplied energy (MWh) by the system peak load (MW), with the result converted into minutes. The paper also identifies regional performances stratifying severity by the transmission subsystems located in the North, Northeast, Southeast, Central-West, and South regions of Brazil. The predicted severity levels were also stratified by voltage levels. Eight peak load operation points from study cases spanning the EPEP 2006 Decennial Plan were analyzed in this study. The even-year cases represent the dry weather scenario in the northern region while the odd-year ones portray the wet weather situation. All results are based on AC flow evaluations considering some corrective remedial actions and using the NH-2 program as assessment tool.
System Reliability Transmission Planning Brazilian System Severity index
M.Alzira Noli Silveira Edna Araujo
EPE Brazil
国际会议
桂林
英文
1-6
2009-10-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）