Analysis and discussion about China’s future demand for electricity
Electricity is one of the main supporting products of economy. China is getting into the fast developing stage and the electrical demand is growing strongly. Understanding the demand and adjusting the output of electricity in time is to be of great value for the healthy and sustained development of the economy. In order to reveal the future development tendency of the electrical industry, the future electrical demand and the influence on the future electrical demand were analyzed in this paper based on the electricity consumption history and China economical development tendency. China’s increase in industry in 2007 makes up 43.9 percent of China’s GDP. It is obviously that the industry dominates the economy increase in our country. The development and increase of economy has inertia, during the eleventh five year project period or even longer, industrial economy will be the main source for China’s economy. Since 2002, China’s investments of permanent assets maintain a quick increase. In terms of calculations according to the inertia of investment, the permanent assets will lead China’s economy for some time. With the help of the “Development of the West and “Rise of Mid China project, China’s investment direction is moving from eastern towards middle and western China. We can conclude that with the stimulation of large amounts of asset investments, mid-western China will be welcoming a booming economy. Based above, We use the electricity elasticity coefficient approach, per-unit GDP electricity consumption approach and per-customer electricity consumption approach to forecast the future electrical demand, and we also made a comparison of electrical demand between China and other countries. We infer that China will need 44080 hundred million kilowatt-hours which needs an installed gross capacity of 9.3 hundred million kilowatts in 2010, and require 76865 hundred million kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2020, which needs an installed gross capacity of 15 hundred million kilowatts.
GDP,Total electricity consumption Power generation capacity,Load Forecasting
Yun Wu Xiaodong Xu Zheng Chen
China Power Engineering Consulting Group Corporation Beijing 100120
国际会议
桂林
英文
1-13
2009-10-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）