Study of the Amount of Rural Migrant Workers Based on Combination Forecasting Model-Case of Sichuan Province

摘要：

This paper attempts to apply combination forecasting model into the prediction of the amount of rural migrant workers. A new model, properly weighted, was established, which combines such models as linear trend model, exponential smoothing model and exponential curve models .Then use the discount factor to further reduce the prediction error which the different time causes .This paper predicts quantificationally the amount of rural migrant works in Sichuan between 2008-2009 by the existing data among 1979-2007. The results show that combination forecasting model is able to improve prediction accuracy, and the amount of rural migrant workers shows off the characteristics that the overall trend is upward but the annual growth rate declined in 2009.

关键词： Amount of rural migrant workers Combination forecasting model Sichuan Province

作者: ZHU Yurong YANG Jinxiu YANG Bo CHEN Dongdong

作者单位: School of Economics and Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Yaan, China, 625014

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 International Forum of Human Resource Strategy and Development(2009人力资源战略与开发国际高层论坛)

会议地点: 济南

会议语种:英文

页码: 602-608

在线出版日期: 2009-10-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）