VALIDATON OF THE AERMOD AIR DISPERSION MODEL: APPLICATION TO CONGENER-SPECIFIC DIOXIN DEPOSITION FROM AN INCINERATOR IN MIDLAND, MICHIGAN
AERMOD dispersion and deposition modeling of ten priority dioxins and furans in the emission profile of the Dow Chemical Company incinerator was coupled to geostatistical modeling of soil dioxin data collected in Midland (MI) as part of the University of Michigan Dioxin Exposure study to validate the emissions model output. Wet and dry deposition fluxes explained 40-80％ of the trends in soil dioxins and 25-40％ of furans, based on regression analysis. By applying accuracy plots and goodness-of-fit approaches to Gaussian simulations of 100 realizations, we were able to quantify the accuracy of the model. Except for PeCDF and OCDD, the predictions of concentrations at 68 sampling locations are accurate and precise. Close to the plant, the true soil measurements fall into the upper tail (75％) of model predictions, and the model predictions were more accurate at greater distance from the incinerator. Congener-specific deposition estimates using AERMOD resulted in an increase of the total predicted TEQ of soil values relative to ISCT3 estimates based on stack TEQ emission data.
Trinh Hoa Goovaerts Pierre Gwinn Danielle Demond Avery Towey Timothy Adriaens Peter
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Michigan College of Engineering,1351 PGeostat,710 Ridgemont Lane,Ann Arbor,MI 48103 The Center for Statistical Consultation and Research,University of Michigan,3550 Rackham Building,An LimbnoTech,401 Avis Dr. Ann Arbor,MI 48108,USA
国际会议
北京
英文
1-4
2009-08-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）