A Condition based Power System Operational Risk Assessment method

摘要：

In this paper, some key problems about operational risk assessment are well analyzed. The time-varying and condition-based component outage model was proposed, which can reflect the changes of weather and other operation conditions. A rank enumeration based system state selection method was used to perform risk assessment. Then, the problem of operational risk index was also addressed. In the last part of paper, two groups of numeral tests were presented. The first one showed that the risk assessment results using component instantaneous unavailability are quite different from the results using steady unavailability, and proves that component outage model with instantaneous unavailability should be used for operational risk assessment; The other one shows that the proposed time-varying component outage model can reflect the operation conditions’ influences on the risk assessment results.

关键词： Operational Risk Component Instantaneous Unavailability Markov Process Failure Rate

作者: Liaoyi Ning Wenchuan Wu Boming Zhang

作者单位: State Key Lab of Power Systems, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The International Conference on Electrical Engineering 2009(2009 电机工程国际会议)

会议地点: 沈阳

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-6

在线出版日期: 2009-07-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）