Long Term Forecast of Annual Maximum Peak Discharge at Yangtze Three Gorges Based on Fuzzy Method

摘要：

A fuzzy model of pattern recognition was established in combining cause-and-effect and statistical analysis with fuzzy analysis, choosing predictors such as rainfall and atmospheric circulation in previous stage which effect the annual maximum peak discharge at Yichang Station of the Yangtze River, giving different weightings to the forecast factors, and making a yearly prediction of annual maximum peak discharge. The results of calculation show that the model is highly effective and the qualified rate of yearly prediction from 1997 to 2004 reaches 100％, the average percentage error is 10％, the simulative error of model is 8. 0％.

作者: G.H. Hu S.Q. Sun X. Yin

作者单位: Hunan provicial key laboratory of water and sediment science & water disaster prevention, Changsha, Port of Guangzhou Waterborne Engineering Supervision Company, Guangzhou, China School of Water Conversancy, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation(2008 智能计算技术与自动化国际会议 ICICTA 2008)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 899-903

在线出版日期: 2008-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）