ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF METROLOGICAL DROUGHT USING HIGH RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
It is widely acknowledged that climate change modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events (e.g.flood and drought).Frequency and intensity of climate-and water-related disasters are increasing worldwide，especially for hydrological extremes，causing a serious threat to the economic development of many regions.In particular water resources in Korea ale vulnerable to changes in climate，compounding changes in water use of a growing population that is demanding more and more water per capita as part of its development.To further investigate impact of climate change on water resources，climate change scenarios driven by Regional Climate Models(RCMs)ale used.The RCMs， with a higher resolution(typically 50 km)ale constructed for limited areas and run for shorter perioas to consider local features such as mountains，which ale not well represented in Global Circulation Models (GCMs).An objective of this study is to evaluate drought pattern under climate change.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)is an index based on the probability of rainfall for any time scale and can assist in assessing the severity of drought.With regard to this，the SPI is employed as a drought index，and EOF analysis and wavelet transform analysis ale implemented in order to assess Spatio-temporal pattern on drought.A rigorous statistical downscaling scheme has been developed and used to simulate future rainfall scenarios from RCMs scenarios.Both present and future drought condition under climate change are comprehensively discussed.
Climate change Drought SPI RCMs EOF analysis
Byung Sik Kim Young-Hye Bae Hyun Han Kwon
Water Resources Research Division,Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Korea Water Resources Research Division，Korea Institute of Construction Technology,Korea
国际会议
High-level International Forum on Water Resources and Hydropower(第一届国际水利水电高层论坛)
北京
英文
91-97
2008-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）