A WEATHER STATE BASED DOWNSCALING MODEL FOR DAILY RAINFALL SIMULATION WITH LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN KOREA
Generating rainfall scenarios that depend on varying climate circulations is a challenge that has motivated the utilization of stochastic downscaling methods to model daily precipitation processes at multiple sites by linking synoptic scale with point gauge scale.Daily rainfall probabilities，the persistence of wet and dry regimes，and other rainfall statistics can vary substantially over time and space in a systematic way.A major promise of this study is that large scale climatic patterns are a major driver of such persistent year to year changes in rainfall probabilities.Once the useful predictors such as SSTs，SLPs and GCMs for seasonal rainfall are identified we develop the models to perform the prediction and simulation.Here we utilize a weather state based stochastic multivariate model as conditional probability model for simulating the rainfall field.This study is intended to use General circulation models for downscaling approach.It has been acknowledged that GCMs perform well with respect to annual and seasonal variation at large spatial scale and they stand as one of the primary sources for obtaining projections of future climate changes. The devised methodology is applied to a watershed in Korea.In general，precipitation in Korea is highly dominated by nonlinear processes that interact with each other over a wide range of scales.A useful paradigm to disaggregate seasonal simulation or predictions to daily values at many locations may be of interest to the watershed in Korea.
Weather state model downscaling GCM large-scale climate pattern
Hyun-Han Kwon Byung-Sik Kim Seok-Young Yoon Young-Il Moon
Korea Institute of Construction Technology,2311，Daehwa-Dong,Ilsanseo-Gu，Goyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do，411-7 University of Seoul,Siripdae-gil 13,Dongdaemun-gu,Seoul,130-743.Republic of Korea
国际会议
High-level International Forum on Water Resources and Hydropower(第一届国际水利水电高层论坛)
北京
英文
110-114
2008-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）