USING FUZZY RECOGNITION THEORY TO EVALUATE THE FLOOD CAUSED LOST AND RISK IN SOUTH TIANJIN
As a main branch of Hai He River and being located at South Tianjin，Da Qing He River and its branches may cause flood and threaten Tianj in.The relationship of the flood in the river and flood detention area is complicated.In the past years the flood prevention ability of Da Qing He River region decays due to the change of river bed，like siltation of dike and agriculture using the land of river bed；the sediment of embankment and the un-proper exploring of the flood detention area.Under this condition，the risk of flood raise and south Tianj in is under danger when heavy rainfall comes，and the flood detention area in this region may be used frequently.The flood caused lost evaluation can predict a possible value of economic lost and human death which caused by floods and give out a discussion of the flood induced change of ecosystem and society in the detention area，so it is complex and difficult to grade the damage of the flood.However,the traditional evaluation theories which simply accumulated each lost related items by weight didn’t work very well because the real conditions were more complicate than those models expected.In this paper the model we set is based on the Fuzzy Recognition Theory to predict the flood caused results and give out more reliable evaluation.In this paper,based on the 1D and 2D flood routing model and according to the distributing of the venture population and flood character,the maximum possible submerge range was drawn out synchronously，the spatial distribution of the submerge depth and other risk indexes were also sketched to express the spatial differences in the flood protection area.Then fuzzy math and overlay analysis were applied in the evaluation of flood risk and drawing of flood risk map.we revealed the relation between the quantity of human death and the ability of flood prediction，and calculated the economic lost in flood.Considered the social and economical condition of Tianjin and followed by Maximum Membership Principle and Closeness Optimization Principle，we studied and graded Flood Rush Area，Flood Effected Population and Flood caused economic lost in the detention area by Fuzzy mathematics.By this method we can quantitatively predict the flood caused damage from different aspects and grade the damage in more detail and more accurate.This model is helpful for Flood Control departments to minimize the damage and lost in flood.
Risk Division Loss of life Fuzzy Recognition
Zhou Zhihua
国际会议
High-level International Forum on Water Resources and Hydropower(第一届国际水利水电高层论坛)
北京
英文
591-592
2008-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）