A Web-based Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System

摘要：

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decisions. As a consequence, powerful but simple forecasting processes are urgently sought after by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system for Hong Kong based on the web techniques to help relevant stakeholders within the tourism industry to make better decisions. The system generates the forecasts of tourism arrivals, tourism expenditure, demand for hotel rooms, sectoral demands and outbound tourist flows. The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) Model is employed by this web-based forecasting system. The ADL model relates a set of influencing factors to the demand for tourism in Hong Kong, and generates both statistical as well as scenario forecasts of tourism demand in Hong Kong. In addition, the system also allows experts’ adjustments to be made to the statistical forecasts.

关键词： tourism demand forecasting web-based system scenario analysis econometric model Hong Kong

作者: Haiyan Song Zixuan Gao Xinyan Zhang Shanshan Lin

作者单位: School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom,Kowloon, Hong School of Professional Education and Executive Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hu

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Ninth Wuhan International Conference on E-Business(第九届武汉电子商务国际会议)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 891-898

在线出版日期: 2010-05-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）