Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Statistical Model for Forecasting Project Total Duration in Earned Value Management

摘要：

The paper proposes a new hybrid approach for forecasting project total durations in earned value management. It combines artificial neural network and random number simulation method to forecast the earned schedule indicator of each period one step further based on several nearest finished periods’ status. Then the statistical method is employed to estimate the project total duration and its intervals in each period of the project. Experiment results and test show our hybrid model outperforms the classic t IEAC method of earned value management in both aspects of interval estimation and point estimation.

关键词： Project Management Earned Value Management (EVM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Earned Schedule (ES) Forecasting

作者: You Li Lu Liu

作者单位: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Ninth Wuhan International Conference on E-Business(第九届武汉电子商务国际会议)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 2603-2609

在线出版日期: 2010-05-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）