The Impact of Interest Rate and Ezchange Rate Adjustment on Price Fluctuation of Real Estate in China: Based on VEC Model from 1998 to 2008
Price fluctuation of real estate not only affects the sustainable development of the real estate industry also has a grate effect on the stability of Chinas financial system and on the healthy operation of our national economy. On account of the dual nature of the real estate as investment and consumption, there are two different purchase needs: Investment and owner-occupied. Based on this, author researches for the impact of real Interest Rate and RMB effective exchange rate adjustment on price fluctuation of real estate by JJ cointegration test, Granger causality test, Impulse response analysis, Variance decomposition, with the establishment of a vector error correction (VCE) model using their monthly data from January 1998 to December 2008 of china. The conclusion of empirical test is: In the long run, there is a stable co-integrated relationship among interest rate, RMB effective exchange rate and real estate price; there is also a negative relationship between interest rate and real estate price. The adjustment of interest rate has the limited influence on controlling the housing price fluctuation in the short run. However, it has the obvious regulative function in long-term; a positive correlation between RMB exchange rate and housing price does exist. Exchange rate changes have a remarkable impact on real estate prices fluctuation. Therefore, it is advisable for China to harmonize the RMB exchange rate policy and interest rate policy and maintain gradual and slight appreciation of RMB to safeguard price fluctuation of real estate.
real estate price fluctuation VEC model interest rate adjustment ezchange rate adjustment
WEN Hongmei ZHOU Zhongyuan
School of Finance, Harbin University ofCommerce, Harbin, China 150028 School of Finance, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin, China 150028
国际会议
2009 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2009建设与房地产管理国际会议)
北京
英文
980-984
2009-11-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）