The Fluctuation of Housing Price and Consumer Confidence: Chinese Evidence

摘要：

Using the cointegration and Granger test, this paper studies the relationship between the fluctuation of housing price and consumer confidence in China over the years 2000–2007. The empirical results show that there exists a long run cointegration between the fluctuation of housing price and consumer confidence in China. Moreover, housing price generally Granger-cause consumer confidence, but not vice versa. The housing price–confidence relationship is driven by expectations about economy-wide conditions and the personal finances. This suggests that the confidence channel is based on the leading indicator property of housing prices, and it is a part of the traditional wealth effect.

关键词： consumer confidence housing price wealth effect

作者: KONG Yu

作者单位: School of Civil Engineering, Guizhou University, Guiyang, China 550000

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2009建设与房地产管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 992-995

在线出版日期: 2009-11-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）