Inflation, Personal Disposable Income, and Housing Prices Fluctuation: Shenzhen 2000-2008
This paper employs a Vector Autoregressive model to analyze the relationship between inflation, personal disposable income and housing price fluctuations in Shenzhen. The sample period spanned the 1st quarter of 2000 to the 3rd quarter of 2008. The empirical results indicate that the lagged inflation and lagged housing price change have had more significant effects on housing price fluctuation than that of the income factor. The lagged housing prices can contribute 50% to future housing prices fluctuation even at the 9th coming season; the lagged inflation can contribute at most 48.7% to housing prices fluctuation at the 11th coming season, while the lagged personal disposal income can contribute no more than 2.8% to future housing prices fluctuation. This paper may be used as reference for policy makers to adjust the financial and tax policy, so as to keep housing prices stable according to the changes of macroeconomic factors, which was also presented as policy suggestions.
housing prices fluctuation inflation personal disposable income VAR
WU Gang WANG Qun SAMMY Chung
School of Economics, Jinan University,Guangzhou, China 510632 Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen, China 518055 Faculty of Social Sciences and Law, Bristol University, UK BS81TH
国际会议
2009 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2009建设与房地产管理国际会议)
北京
英文
1261-1265
2009-11-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）