Forecast of Regional Land Use Structure Based on Markov Chain--a Case Study in Yaan City, Sichuan Province, China

摘要：

According to the data on Yaan citys land-use balance table from 2002 to 2008, this paper takes the quantitative analysis on the land-use change. Then, this paper uses the Markov theory to construct the transition probability matrix on land-use structure, simulate the state of land-use structure in 2008, predict and analyze the land-use structure in 2015 and 2020 respectively. This study shows that in next 10 years, the area of arable land will reduce continually, construction land will still be increasing, but the increase and decrease rang will get smooth in different land-use types. So, at last, this paper gives suggestions from different four aspects, which are improving the mechanism of paid land-use to raise the cost of arable land occupation, effectively control the quantity of construction lands, raise land-use efficiency, improve land ecological environment, perform the land reclamation work well, and establish a land-use structures optimization model based on the actual naturaleconomy conditions.

关键词： Land-use structure Markov chain theory Yaan city

作者: WU Jing CHEN Wenkuan

作者单位: College of Economic Administration,Sichuan Agricultural University, P.R.China, 625014

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 Geology Resource Management and Sustainable Development(2009 地质资源管理与可持续发展国际学术会议)

会议地点: 庐山

会议语种:英文

页码: 215-224

在线出版日期: 2009-10-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）