Forecasting of Water Level of Qinghai Lake Basing on Statistics Downscaling from Climatic Model
Statistic downscaling models of Qinghai Lake are built in this paper by the output from AOGCM (Germany MPI ECHAM5.0) and local observed data in recent 40 years. Climate scenarios in the future 30 years (2001～2030) are obtained and used to predict water level changing of Qinghai Lake in the future 30 years. The result indicates that water level changes of Qinghai Lake would experience three phases; slowly descending, gradually ascending and steadily arising. In 2030, lake level would rise to about 3,195.4 m, which is about 2.2 m higher than present water level, lake area is approaching to 4,500 km2 and lake storage is near 81,300 millions m3, Qinghai Lake would recover the status of 1970s in 20th centuries. This result would alleviate water resources tension in the catchment of Qinghai Lake at present, and recover local vegetation, reduce the soil degenerating. In conclusion, it is beneficial to local ecotope and social economics.
SWAT statistic downscaling water level change of Qinghai Lake climate scenarios
Liu Jifeng Xu Zhuoshou Dong Wu
Hydrology Bureau, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, 450004, China Information Centre, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, 450004, China
国际会议
郑州
英文
159-167
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）