Simulating Water Diversion and Pollution Reduction Conflicts in River Basin Using Game Theoretic Models
Water diversion and water pollution reduction in river basin is very complex, and the complexity comes not only from hydrological, bio-chemical processes, but involves multiple stakeholders with different and even conflicting interests. This paper established game theoretic models to analyze water conflicts concerning water diversion and pollution reduction in river basin. The example was taken from the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project involved in Hanjiang River basin in China. The game simulation models included two levels with 1 main game and 4 sub-games. Statistical and econometric regression modelling methods were used to formulate payoff functions of different players in the games. The models were evaluated by examining the errors between the predicting values with the observations. Economic valuation methods (EVMs) were applied to transform non-monetary value into economic one. Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA) was employed to compare the game outcomes. Future uncertainties were analyzed using four scenarios. The main results proved that cooperation would make the players collectively better off. Individually, however, all the net benefits were to some players, the rest of the players face net losses. Scenarios simulation results displayed that uncertainty of cooperation could come from the players who would face great losses. It also revealed that, due to the losses of some players, water pollution reduction would result in a prisoners dilemma. The results from the simulation suggest a need to design a mechanism to reduce the risk of losses of those players by a side payment, which could provide incentives to them to cooperate. Those modelling approach and results are very supportive for water pricing, water allocation, water pollution reduction and ecological compensation in river basin management.
game theoretic model conflicts water scarcity nitrogen reduction economic valuation scenario analysis the Water Transfer China
Shouke Wei Hong Yang
UNESCO - IHE Institute for Water Education, P. O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands Delft Uni Department System Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aqua
国际会议
郑州
英文
731-749
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）