Construction Risk Analysis of the Yellow River Flood Control Project Based on Probability
According to the Yellow River flood control project of Wuzhuang in Xinxiang, construction risk recognition is done by using analytic hierarchy process based on environment analysis and structure decomposition of the construction system. After the weight of the level elements is sorted and their relative important grade is judged, the important risk factors and the main risk models of the construction system are obtained. By analyzing the probability distribution of uncertain influencing factors and recognizing parameters of the probability distribution with proper methods, the risk factor probability model of the Yellow River flood control project is studied. Based on BP neural network, risk probability analysis of rainfall is done, and based on Monte Carlo (MC) method and Latin Hypercube (LH)method, the risk probability of flood is calculated in the case of analytical solution which is difficult to be obtained. Day prediction with the number of days of rainfall greater than 10mm is calculated, and flood risk of the Wuzhuang project is close to the operation of the Xiaolangdi reservoir. That plays a guidance role in making a construction decision of the control project of Wuzhuang and also provides an effective and feasible new way for risk probability analysis of the Yellow River flood control projects.
flood control project of Yellow River construction risk identification risk factor probability calculation the decision - making of construction
Zhao Yu Zhao Zhenguo Li He Guo Xifang Zhang Jianwei
North China University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Zhengzhou ,450011, China Henan Zhongyuan Yellow River Engineering Co. , Ltd. , Xinxiang, 453003, China
国际会议
郑州
英文
774-779
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）