The Long Range Forecasting of the Neva River Runoff with Account the Periodicities in its Time Series
The methodology of estimation of the periodicities in time series of runoff of Neva River was developed. The periods with the length of 3, 5, 8, 11, 13, 16, 21 and 29 years were revealed. The periodicities were respectively summed up. The correlation of sums of periodicities with the original time series is sufficiently high to apply them for the long range forecast estimations of the Neva River runoff. The values of the training forecast of the runoff of the Neva River in advance up to 10 years were estimated and tested by the new independent data. The analysis of forecast results shows its good justification for the first 5 years and satisfactory justification for the all decade interval.
Hydrological forecasting time series periodicities
Alexey V. BABKIN
State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia
国际会议
郑州
英文
1236-1240
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）