Research on Approach of Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Assessment of Dam Overtopping
Complicated uncertainty exists in dam overtopping risk systems. It has been always one of the hot and difficult topics. In the traditional way, the non-normal distribution variables need to be transformed to normal distribution, which would influence the risk analysis. In this study, based on the reservoir forecasted operation practice, the uncertain factors are addressed such as the flood forecasting error, initial water level, the operation delay, wind and wave, and reservoir release error, and so on. A risk analysis model is proposed for risk estimation of daM overtopping. Aiming at the different distribution variables from the uncertain system, Latin hypercube sampling is employed to sample variables own distributions to solve the model, rather than all the transformed normal distribution. Moreover, it could implement the random combination sampling and could achieve more effective sampling. This presented methodology is a novel progress for dam overtopping risk analysis. It is applied to the risk analysis of dam overtopping for Biliuhe reservoir in Liaoning Province of China, and the risk estimation is evaluated.
dam overtopping risk estimation risk model Latin hypercube sampling uncertainty analysis
Liu Yanli Zhou Huicheng Wang Guoqing
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Climate Change, Nanjing,210029, China School of Civil and Hydr School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Climate Change, Nanjing,210029, China
国际会议
郑州
英文
1404-1409
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）