The research of coalbed methane economic assessment method involved in uncertainty parameters

摘要：

One of basic tasks of coalbed methane commercial exploration is CBM economic assessment, in which some uncertainty parameters are included. The uncertainty parameters cause the assessment result is varied, which leads to potential risk of CBM commercial exploration. In the traditional CBM economic assessment, it is hard to describe the risk of CBM commercial exploration and explain the variable characters of the uncertainty parameters. Monte-Carlo Method can analyse the risk of CBM commercial exploration and avoid using a constant instead of the variability. So Monte-Carlo method is applied in CBM economic assessment which includes three steps. Firstly, the index system of CBM economic assessment is created and the weight of index is obtained by analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Secondly, by the annual revenue model example, the processes and steps of Monte-Carlo method are described. Thirdly, the major steps of the algorithm realization of Monte Carlo algorithm for CBM economic assessment are listed.

关键词： Monte-Carlo methods coalbed methane economic assessment

作者: Y. H. Chen Y. G. Yang Y. Qin

作者单位: School of Resources and Earth Sciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221008, Jiangsu,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 Asia Pacific Coalbed Methane Symposium and 2009 China Coalbed Methane Symposium(2009亚洲太平洋国际煤层气会议暨2009年全国煤层气学术研讨会)

会议地点: 徐州

会议语种:英文

页码: 745-751

在线出版日期: 2009-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）