Impulse Response of Ezport Price to Production Cost Based on Data Mining
Influence of production cost on export price is always the hot topic of foreign trade research. Previous researches just use original series to establish models but not fully discover information content of time series signals. Taking China’s citrus trade for example, the paper uses wavelet analysis to decompose production cost and export price into four series, which are trend, cycle, volatility and noise. After filtering noise, the paper forecasts the influence of trend, cycle and volatility of production cost on that of export price by using impulse response and variance decomposition which are based on VAR. Results show that in the long run, change trend and cycle of production cost’s influence on that of export price is very significant, but the volatility of production cost’s influence on that of citrus export price is very small.
data mining ezport price production cost discrete wavelet transform impulse response
Yu Zhang Yu Zhao Chunjie Qi
College of Finance & Economics, Wuhan University of Science & Engineering, WUSE, Wuhan, Hubei provin College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, HZAU, Wuhan, Hubei province, P.
国际会议
北京
英文
1368-1372
2009-08-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）