Grey Analysis of Corrosion on the Overhead Condensing system
Corrosion is a serious problem in atmospheric distillation unit when the plant refines high-acid crude oil from Shengli Oil Field. To measure and predict the corrosion and related factors is a significant task in refinery. The GM (1, 1) model only can predict the sequence of exponential law, scribe the monotonic change event. Took acid value as sample, used the data from the first to 6th month, established GM (2, 1) model and Verhulst to predict the data from 7th to 9th. For the GM (2, 1) model, the maximum relative error is 11.8%, the mean relative error is 7.2%, and the mean relative error of prediction is 13.2%. For the Verhulst model, the maximum relative error is 7.0%, the mean relative error is 3.1%, and the mean relative error of prediction is 10.6%. The conclusion is the Verhulst model is better than DGM model and can be used for corrosion pate prediction.
Zhengfang Wang Shuling Liu SHiwei Li
Mechanical Engineering in Shandong University, Ji’nan 250061, China Education Center in Yun Nan Power Grid Corporation, Kunming 650204, China Department of Mechanical Engineering in Zibo Vocational College, Zibo 255314, China
国际会议
2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)
南京
英文
233-235
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）