Research on MGM(1,N τ,r ) Model and Application

摘要：

In accordance with the characteristics of the complex system, its multivariable, nonlinear and delayed, based on MGM(1,N), this paper proposes a new multivariable grey model (MGM (1,N τ,r)) which is established by introducing delayed factor τand nonlinear factor r. The main work of this article is to research modeling process, parameter estimation, precision inspection, forecasting and so on. During modeling, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithem is used to solve the parametersτ, r. Finally, MGM (1,N τ,r)is applied for forecasting input and output of Wuhan new hi-tech industry. By comparing the forecast results of MGM (1,N τ,r)and MGM (1,N), we can obtain that the new model possesses a much higher precision and grey correlation degree. MGM(1,N τ,r)is a reasonable and effective method to resolve the delayed and nonlinear system.

作者: Huan Guo Xinping Xiao Xiuqin Feng

作者单位: School of Science, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, CO 430063 School of Science, Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan, CO 430063 China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 320-325

在线出版日期: 2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）