Gray Verhulst Modeling Prediction and Education Research for Beijing SARS
2003 year, the Beijing SARS epidemic ， is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.
Yin Boming Wang Yuanbo
Institute of Education Development, No.10, 658 nong, Zaozhuang road, Shanghai, CO 200136 China Shanghai Yangjing High School, No. 111, Weifang road, Shanghai, CO 200122 China
国际会议
2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)
南京
英文
497-501
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）