A Grey Forecasting Model for Coal Production and Consumption

摘要：

China has already become worlds largest coal producer and consumer. Chinas production in 2006 roughly equaled the combined production of the next four top producers (the United States, India, Australia and Russia). The dynamic GM(1,1) model of grey theory is used to forecast the coal production and consumption in China. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the original GM(1,1) models are improved by using Markov-chain. We analyze the data of the coal production and consumption from 1990 to 2007 in China, and forecast China’s coal production and consumption by this Grey-Markov forecasting model, which shows that the improved grey forecasting model is of more reliability and higher forecast accuracy than GM (1,1). And the forecast results indicate that China’s coal production and consumption will continue to increase rapidly in the period of 2008 to 2015.

作者: Hong-Wei Ma Dong-Qing Zhang

作者单位: College of Engineering,Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210031, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 512-516

在线出版日期: 2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）