Grey Model of County-level Fiscal Income & Ezpenditure and Application
Other than directly investigate the relationships among factors in a complex system or a large amount of samples, grey model is more suitable to forecast county-level fiscal income & expenditure with fewer samples and time series data for it can seek the transformation pattern by coordinating originality data. The paper research the county-level fiscal income and expenditure forecasting based on grey model in both model and indicator terms. On the basis of predicting fiscal income and expenditure of Guangfeng county from 2001 to 2006, the result indicate that gray model is feasible for predicting county-level fiscal income & expenditure and it produces an obvious fitting effect on two selected emulational subjects. Therefore, gray model is of great significance to predict district fiscal income & expenditure, evaluate fiscal risks, assist administrator with fiscal decision making according to the evaluation result and guard against as well as defuse district fiscal risks.
Cheng SHU
School of Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance ＆ Economics, P.R.China 330013
国际会议
2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)
南京
英文
678-681
2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）