Prediction of International Crude Oil Futures Price Based on GM(1,1)

摘要：

Grey prediction method is characterized by small amount data, simple calculation and accurate prediction. On the basis of WTI crude oil futures monthly price of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) from June 2008 to Feb 2009, this paper gives a grey prediction model of intentional crude oil prices. The results show that the model of GM (1,1) is suitable for crude oil prices forecast. It predicts that the crude oil price on Feb 2009 is $37.55 per barrel. In contrast with the actual market price, the prediction accuracy is as high as 95.62%.

作者: Aimei Lin

作者单位: School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 221008, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 692-696

在线出版日期: 2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）