Impact of Using the Third Order Ezponential Smoothing Forecasts on Reducing the Bullwhip Effect and Supply Chain Inventory Costs

摘要：

The bullwhip effect, average inventory level and expected holding and shortage costs at retailer in a two-stage supply chain are quantified when different exponential smoothing forecasting is used. Then, the comparison analysis is performed. It can be shown that in a supply chain with positively correlated demand, the order variance, inventory level and expected inventory costs based on the third order exponential smoothing forecast is smaller than those based on the second order exponential smoothing forecast, and the order variance, inventory level and expected inventory costs based on double exponential smoothing forecast is smaller than those based on simple exponential smoothing forecast. We also show that, for large values of lead time, the third order exponential smoothing forecast can significantly decrease the average inventory and expect inventory costs at the retailer. When the lead time is small, however, the reductions in average inventory and expected inventory costs are limited.

作者: Chuanxu Wang

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services(2009 IEEE灰色系统与服务科学国际会议)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 1612-1617

在线出版日期: 2009-10-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）