ESPN-Based Analysis on Schedule Risk in Rockfill Dam Construction
To sciencifically arange the schedule and keep the schedule risks under proper control is among those most important tasks which ensure a rapid and economic construction of the rockfill dam.In consideration of the shortcomoings of the network planning based schedule risk analysis for a complex system,such as the rockfill dam construction system with multiple phases,multiple asynchronous and/or concurrent tasks,this paper presents an ESPN(extended stochastic Petri net)-based schedule risk analysis for the rockfill dam construction.With the ESPN-based method,it is possible to simulate the structure of the construction system and the construction processes more realistically,to consider the stochastic characteristics of process times and construction conditions,and to consider the combination of risk factors and their acting time more accurately. Through the simulation of the whole construction process,not only the distribution of the time for completion of the project,but also the distribution of time for completion of key tasks can be obtained.Based on which the risks in scheduling the whole project and the risks in scheduling the key tasks can be estimated,and the bottleneck in the schedule can be found.In addition,different construction schemes can be compared. This paper also presents the method of building the ESPN model using structured and object-oriented programming and a reference model for simulating the construction process with multi-phases and concurrent tasks.
rockfill dam schedule risk eztend stochastic petri network simulation
Zheng Ying Xiao Huanxiong
Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China
国际会议
The 1st International Symposium on Rockfill Dams(第一届堆石坝国际研讨会)
成都
英文
579-586
2009-10-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）