Project risk modeling and simulation based on DSM

摘要：

The design structure matrix method is used in risk estimate and control of project management An improved risk index model is proposed for schedule risk and cost risk by reason of rework iteration. The simulation model based on design structure matrix is applied to analyze single risk and combination risk in large-scale project On the condition of uncertain execute time and given optimal execute sequence of tasks, relation between cost and schedule is Weibull distribution. Random nature of rework iteration and learning effect are also taken into consideration during executing process. Simulation example proves that the risk index for project management is validity and dynamicity.

关键词： design structure matriz risk indez learning effect rework simulation

作者: Xiao-long LIU Bin DU Dong-yu CHEN

作者单位: School of Economics & Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China School of Economics & Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China School of Information Manag

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2nd International Conference on Vale Engineering and Vale Management(2009)(2009年北京价值工程与价值管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 251-257

在线出版日期: 2009-10-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）