Urban Environmental Noise Pollution Prediction Model and its Application
The structure principle of GM (1, 1) model was analyzed and the defect was pointed out that the traditional model only adapt to the data with exponential law, and only can fit for the monotonic data. The prediction was defected when there are two consecutive data unchanged, and ‘á’ was equal to 0.5 in prediction formula. The average slope is used to calculate á (k) instead of constant 0.5, and a new prediction method (N-GM (1, 1)) is put forward. The mathematical models applied to forecast the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise of Shenyang city in the future five years. The forecast results show that the regional environmental noise and the traffi c noise are rising gradually every year, no measures are adapted the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise will rise to 55.13 dB (A) and 69.94 dB (A) in 2012 respectively.
grey theory average slope prediction regional environmental noise traffic noise
XIE Zhengwen WU Chao YUAN Changming YUAN Qiao
Safety and Environment Protection Institute,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,Hunan,China Safety and Environment Protection Institute,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China
国际会议
2009 International Symposium on Environmental Science and Technology(2009环境科学与技术国际会议)
上海
英文
2372-2377
2009-06-02（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）