Application of distributed hydrological model in water resources assessment and runoff forecast in a changing environment
The water resources assessment and runoff forecast are the important issues for water resources management, but how to carry out the hydrological simulation correctly with considering the effect of human activities is one of the most important problems in this modern developed society. In this paper, a coupled model, IHAE-GBHM(Integrating Human Activities Effects into GBHM), is built for runoff forecast and water resources assessment under changing environment. At the same time, considering the difficulty caused by the possible inaccuracy of measured downstream runoff data for model parameter calibration, the UCMV (Up-reach for Calibration and Mid-reach for Validation) Process method is developed considering the consistency problem of data for water resources assessment. As a case study, the natural runoff from 1956-2000 under different underlying surface in the Miyun Reservior catchment is simulated. The results show that the average annual water resources under underlying surface in 1990s is 1.059 billion m3, and 1.032 billion m3 in 2000s, and the latter runoff generation ability reduced by 2.5 percent than former, which indeed prove the effects of underlying surface change on runoff generation ability, the existence of restoration invalidation, and the validity of using distributed hydrological model for water resources assessment under changed environment. Moreover, the simulated results of actual runoff from 1990-1991 by IHAE-GBHM model shows that the IHAE-GBHM model used for runoff forecast is also feasible.
distributed hydrological model water resources assessment runoff forecast changing environment IHAE-GBHM model
Fen YANG Zhongjing WANG Jianshi ZHAO
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua Un State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua Un
国际会议
The Four Conference of Asia Pacific Association of Hydrology and Water Resources(亚太地区水文水资源协会第4届科学大会)
北京
英文
273-283
2008-11-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）