Risk analysis of proposed ferry ezpansion for the Shanghai Ezpo 2010
In order to guarantee the realization of the World Expo passenger water traffic to share 10％ of the traffic, a proposal has been made to the Coordination Bureau of Shanghai World Expo to increase the frequency and coverage of ferry service in Huangpu River. Under this background, this paper focuses on evaluating the risk of the expanded ferry and tourism ship system. A simulation model was created to estimate the number of vessel interactions and vessel density and their increases caused by three alternative expansion plans, especially in rush hours. A major question in the approval process is the effect of this expansion on the level of congestion on the waterway and the effect this will have on the safety of all vessels in the World Expo Area. A regression model is presented to evaluate the potential risk reduction measures which depend on six explanatory factors. Detailed risk management recommendations and emergency response measures have been developed and provided to the shanghai dongjiadu MSA.
risk assessment simulation traffic congestion regression model shanghai World Ezpo2010
Zhang Hao Xiao YingJie Li Song Bai XiangEn
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University,P.O. Box 1290, 1550 Pu Dong Da Dao, Shanghai 200135, China
国际会议
The 2nd International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(第二届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)
北京
英文
118-123
2009-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）