Flood Risk Assessment for Large-scale Dike Systems

摘要：

The physical consequence of upstream dike performance must be considered in the downstream flood parameter and that provides a rational basis for the processbased flood risk assessment model for large-scale dike systems presented in this paper. In this model, time effects of flood load and impacts of risk transfers among dikes are considered, all the flooding processes are simulated separately and integrated in a Monte Carlo framework, and branching and bounding method is used to identify the main state sequences of dike systems. A case study indicates the proposed method performs well and gives some useful conclusions.

关键词： dike system flood risk risk transfer state-transition analysis branching and bounding

作者: Cheng Wei-shuai Ji Chang-ming Liu Dan

作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2nd International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(第二届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 413-419

在线出版日期: 2009-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）